The outcome of the United States presidential election, described as unprecedented, has left many people in that and the rest of the world in a state of shock. The result defied all predictions by political strategists, analysts, commentators and from diverse opinion polls. Against all odds, Donald Trump emerged the President-elect in an election that Hillary Clinton was tipped to win. Since then there has been reactions and different analyses as to why Trump won and Hillary lost. Unfortunately, none of them seems to address the underlining factors behind Trump’s victory.
The first factor responsible for Trumps victory was his realisation of the strategic importance of the Electoral College System to the election. The Electoral College is the body that elects the President of the United States every four years. It is a legacy of the US Constitution. The Constitution states that “each state shall appoint a number of electors” equal to its representation in Congress, including two Senators. Thus, since the 1880s, the state electors always vote in block in favour of a presidential candidate who won the highest votes in their states. In all, the candidate who receives an absolute majority of the electoral votes in all the states of the US becomes the President-elect. In this way, the Electoral College System becomes a process of registering a state decision.
It is this awareness of the strategic importance of the Electoral College System in winning the presidential race that encouraged Donald Trump in 2012, following Mitt Romney’s loss to Barrack Obama and thinking that Romney had lost at the Electoral College, to tweet that the Electoral College System is “a disaster to democracy.” Although he condemned it at the time, he knew that it was a system worth exploiting.
In 1876, Samuel Tilden beat Rutherford Hayes, a Republican, in the popular vote but lost in a compromised deal. In 1888, the 23rd American President, Benjamin Harrison, another Republican, was elected despite the fact that Grover Cleveland won the popular vote. Similarly in 2000, Vice-President Al Gore won the popular vote but lost to the Texas Republican governor George Bush. It became obvious to Trump that the Republican Party, more than the Democratic Party, seemed to have mastered the workings of the Electoral College System and learnt to use it to its advantage. It was not a surprise when he decided to contest the presidential election under the platform of the Republican Party. It was a strategic and deliberate decision.
Trump realised that the Republican Party had lost the popular vote but won with an electoral college on three occasions before now. The party’s historical feat of losing the popular vote and winning the presidential election through the Electoral College was not lost on Trump. He knew that he was not likely to win the election through the popular vote and so, his strategy to win was directed to the Electoral College System on the platform of the Republican Party.
The Democratic Party on the other hand has no clue to the workings of the Electoral College System. Therefore, it is not a coincidence that for a record fourth time, it won the popular vote but lost at the Electoral College. The implication is that until the Democratic Party finds a solution to the Electoral College System, it will continue to suffer shocking and painful defeat in the hand of their Republican Party rivals in future presidential elections.
The second strategy that worked for Trump’s victory has to do with his knowledge of the character and mood of the Republican Party voters. Aware of the mannerism of its supporters as far back as 1998, he decided that contesting the election on the platform of the Republican Party would serve him best. This explains his flip-flops on important issues during the campaign. He knew that the Republican Party voters are simple-minded, irrational and gullible. Thus, despite the controversies that trailed his campaign, and just as he rightly observed 19 years ago, they did not disappoint him. They decided to queue behind him and voted for him. This shows how smart and strategic Donald Trump could be in his thinking and decision making.
The third factor is Trump’s use of the BREXIT Referendum campaign strategy. He had watched the campaign and seen the outcome in favour of the Get-Out advocates. Similarly, he played on the emotions of the American voters. He simply told them what they wanted to hear, even when he knows that he is not going to fulfill half of those campaign promises.
Trump knew that voters often decide with their heads, not with their hearts. That was his strategy. He campaigned for control of immigration and strong borders, including a wall along the Mexican border. He promised to deny illegal immigrants entries to the US and prevent them from taking American jobs. Like the BREXIT campaign, which promised to make Britain great again, his campaign slogan was to make the US great again.
Trump also kicked against the establishment, the Wall Streets and the lobbyists. These were the kind of things that the American voters wanted to hear. For the first time in the history of the US, all living ex-presidents of the country united to warn Americans not to vote for him. But the people, for what they cared, ignored their leaders warning and voted Trump. It did not matter to them whether the President-elect will fulfill his campaign promises or not. For Trump, the end justifies the means.
Finally, the election of Donald Trump cast a dent on the legacy of Obama’s Presidency. Despite a job market turn around and getting America out of recession among his many achievements, Obama will end up carrying out the unenviable task of handing over to his political party rival, the Republican Party President-elect Donald Trump. No thanks to Democratic Party flawed campaign strategy and its inability to read the mood of the American electorate.
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